short criminals

A recent NBER working paper looks at the relationship between a person's hight and criminal activity in the late 19th century. Using prison records, they show that (1) inmates tend to be shorter than the average person in the population, and (2) the likelihood of being a criminal is decreasing in height. That is, the taller someone is, the less likely they end up behind bars. They argue that these results are consistent with taller people having a labor market advantage.

The paper was written by Howard Bodenhorn (Clemson), Carolyn Moehling (Yale), and Gregory N. Price (Morehouse). Download it here.

the logic of life

As you may imagine, I enjoy reading the popular press books and articles describing new economic research. Some are better than others. Most recently, I finished Tim Hartford's The Logic of Life, which is amongst the best popular press economics books (also amongst the best are Freakonomics and Super Crunchers). Some of the topics include game theory and poker, the market for marriage and divorce, the job market (and why your lazy boss is paid so much), rational racism (rational not good), and why subsidizing city living would be good for the environment. It's worth a read.

Read some reviews here. Buy it here.

foster care and adult crime

Joseph Doyle (MIT) studies the impact of foster care on child outcomes -- namely whether they commit crimes as adults. To do so, Doyle first shows that whether a child ends up in foster care often depends on the identity of his or her case worker. Some case workers are more likely than others to place children in foster care. Because case workers are randomly assigned to cases, whether a child ends up in foster care (for marginal cases) is random. This randomness can be used to measure the effects of foster care. Do children assigned to a foster-care prone case worker tend to have different outcomes than children assigned to a case worker that is less likely to place them in foster care?

From the abstract:

Children on the margin of placement are found to be two to three times more likely to enter the criminal justice system as adults if they were placed in foster care. One innovation describes the types of children on the margin of placement, a group that is more likely to include African Americans, girls, and young adolescents.

Read the paper

does movie violence increase violent crime?

In a forthcoming QJE paper, Gordon Dahl (UCSD) and Stefano DellaVigna (Berkeley) test whether violence in the movies influence violence in real life. Using data on cinema releases and attendance, the authors look for correlation between violent-movie attendance and violent crime.

Intuitively, we might imagine that violent movies spur violence. When one leaves the a movie with a lot of fighting, that person might go looking for a fight, right? Surprisingly, the paper finds that violent movie attendance actually causes violent crime to decrease. This may be because those who commit violent crimes like to watch violent movies. When a new movie comes out, they go to the cinema instead of on their "crime spree" (or instead of going to the bar, which otherwise would result in them getting drunk which makes them more likely to commit a violent crime).

They estimate that a violent movie results in 1000 fewer assaults on any given weekend. Admittedly, however, the authors are unable to test for long-run affects of violent movies. Although a violent movie results in less crime in the short run, could increased violence on the big screen result in a more violent society over the course of many years?

Link to the paper on the NBER site
Or, try to download a PDF directly

building criminal capital behind bars

If you hang out with a bunch of a talented chefs, you may learn something about cooking during the time together. If you hang out with car thieves, you may learn a thing or two about stealing cars.

Patrick Bayer, Randi Hjalmarsson, and David Pozen apply this logic to their analysis of juvenile detention centers. They show that future criminal behavior of detention center residents depends, at least somewhat, on the criminal background of the other detention center residents. From their abstract:

We find strong evidence of peer effects for burglary, petty larceny, felony and misdemeanor drug offenses, aggravated assault, and felony sex offenses; the influence of peers primarily affects individuals who already have some experience in a particular crime category.

If you have access to NBER, download there paper here. Otherwise, google scholar.

pirate economics

Peter Leeson (George Mason University) studies pirates. How can you beat that for interesting economics? He hopes that by better understanding pirate organizations, we can better understand other criminal enterprises.

His abstract:

This article investigates the internal governance institutions of violent criminal enterprise by examining the law, economics, and organization of pirates. To effectively organize their banditry, pirates required mechanisms to prevent internal predation, minimize crew conflict, and maximize piratical profit. Pirates devised two institutions for this purpose. First, I analyze the system of piratical checks and balances crews used to constrain captain predation. Second, I examine how pirates used democratic constitutions to minimize conflict and create piratical law and order. Pirate governance created sufficient order and cooperation to make pirates one of the most sophisticated and successful criminal organizations in history.

The paper will be published in a future issue of the Journal of Political Economy.

download the paper

the press release